Excerpts from research reports covering PhosAgro shares
In our view, PhosAgro maintains its position as the world’s most efficient producer of phosphate fertilizers
The recovery of phosphate fertilizer prices to above USD 500 per tonne (DAP Baltic) in the current year has provided significant support to the company’s earnings performance. PhosAgro exports approximately 75% of its production. The company faces minimum logistical constraints by utilising low‑tonnage vessels for its export operations, including those from “friendly” states. Brazil and India represent PhosAgro’s primary export markets.
PhosAgro is actively implementing the third stage of its Strategy, which includes the modernisation of the Balakovo production site. There are plans to create production capacities for 1 mt of complex mineral fertilizers (NPK) and 0.5 mt of DAP per year. Design capacity is to be reached in 2026.
Currently, PhosAgro trades at 5.5x EV/EBITDA 2026P, offering a substantial discount compared to global industry peers and the Company’s own historical valuation multiples.
PhosAgro: our recommendation is “buy” despite rising raw material costs
We are lowering PhosAgro’s target share price by 5% to RUB 8,000, but maintain our “buy” recommendation on expectations of a weaker rouble next year and sustained high fertilizer prices. Total yield, including dividends of RUB 489 per share, stands at 28% over the next year.
Key messages
The primary driver behind the reduced target price is higher projected costs for key raw materials in phosphate fertilizer production: sulphur and ammonia.
The fertilizer market remains robust despite seasonal correction: Indian demand continues to grow, while China’s export restrictions provide ongoing support for DAP/MAP prices.
Raw material costs are climbing amid global supply shortages as several production facilities are taken offline. Sulphur prices have risen particularly sharply, pressuring PhosAgro’s profitability.
The Company delivered strong financial results in 2025 on the back of higher fertilizer prices. For next year, we anticipate revenue and EBITDA growth driven by a weaker rouble. However, we project lower profits in 2026 and 2027.
Fertilizer producers
Rising costs and rouble strength offset favourable market conditions
We have raised our fertilizer export price forecasts reflecting the strength of the global fertilizer market in 2025. However, a stronger than anticipated rouble, combined with higher indexation rates for domestic gas and electricity, has largely neutralised the positive impact of improved export price expectations. We have cut PhosAgro’s target share price by 3% to RUB 7,500, while maintaining our “hold” recommendation.